Austria: The Return of the FPÖ, or the End of the Cordon Sanitaire in Europe

The FPÖ is at 38% in the polls. The ruling coalition, built to block its path, is collapsing at 18%. A twenty-point gap. This is no longer a lead. It is a tidal wave.

Herbert Kickl is at the gates of the chancellery. And with him, the entire European political balance could shift.

Kickl, Haider’s Heir

Herbert Kickl is 58 years old. A former Interior Minister under Sebastian Kurz, he has survived everything. Strache’s fall, the Ibiza affair, internal quarrels. Today, he is the undisputed leader of the FPÖ, topping the polls for over three years.

His platform can be summed up in a few lines. Euroscepticism. Anti-immigration. Opposition to sanctions against Russia. Rejection of Ukraine’s EU membership. Defence of Austrian neutrality. A cocktail reminiscent of Jörg Haider, but more methodical, less flamboyant.

Kickl has distanced himself from Strache’s sulphurous legacy. No yachts in Ibiza, no champagne with fake Russian oligarchs. Just a classic populist line, well-honed, effective. He does not shout. He speaks. And it works.

An Electorate That Looks Like the Rest of Europe

Men. Workers. Retirees. Young men. Rural areas and small towns. The profile of the FPÖ electorate is almost identical to that of the Rassemblement National in France, the AfD in Germany, Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia.

This is not an Austrian exception. It is a deep European movement. Everywhere, the working classes and peripheral areas are turning away from traditional parties to vote “anti-system”. Everywhere, centre-right and centre-left coalitions are collapsing.

The Failure of the Cordon Sanitaire

The ÖVP-SPÖ-NEOS coalition was supposed to be the bulwark. Christian Stocker, the Chancellor, does not exceed 24% popularity. His government is perceived as ineffective. Low growth, austerity, migration frustration. The cordon sanitaire has produced the opposite effect: it is fuelling the protest vote it was meant to prevent.

This is a lesson for all of Europe. “Anti-far-right” coalitions fail when they do not address the root causes of discontent. They only amplify them.

The Vienna-Budapest Axis

The FPÖ maintains close ties with Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz. Same group in the European Parliament: Patriots for Europe. Same positions: Euroscepticism, anti-immigration, opposition to sanctions against Russia.

If Kickl comes to power, Austria will join Hungary in the Eurosceptic bloc. The Patriots for Europe group will gain a second member state. Sanctions against Moscow, already cracked by the Greek exemption on LNG, could be blocked by a Vienna-Budapest front.

An axis that worries Brussels. And that could inspire others.

Neutrality as an Argument

The FPÖ defends Austrian neutrality. It criticises EU membership as a limitation of that neutrality. An argument that resonates in a historically neutral country, caught between NATO and Russia.

The parallel with Switzerland is striking. Two neutral countries, one inside the EU, the other outside. Kickl could instrumentalise neutrality to justify a rapprochement with Moscow. As if Vienna were once again becoming a bridge between East and West, rather than a NATO outpost.

The Precedent of 2000

In 2000, the EU imposed diplomatic sanctions on Austria when Jörg Haider entered government. The result: the sanctions strengthened nationalist sentiment. They were counterproductive.

Today, the EU would probably not dare repeat them. The context has changed. Hungary is already in the Eurosceptic bloc. Poland could swing. Italy is led by Meloni. Sanctioning Vienna would mean sanctioning half of Europe.

But the unease will be real. A far-right government in one of the EU’s founding member states. A first since 1945.

Can the EU accept a second Eurosceptic government? The answer will determine the future of the European project. No one knows it. But the Austrian polls offer a glimpse of what could come.

By the editorial team
Geostrat Watch – Deciphering the world to better anticipate.

Sources

Austria: The Return of the FPÖ, or the End of the Cordon Sanitaire in Europe

Share with