Geostrat Watch
An independent observatory specializing in geostrategic analysis. We analyze tensions, conflicts, and power balances. Our perspective is global, and our method is rational.
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Our latest publications
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Lavrov-Rubio Meeting in Manila: A Dialogue That Says Nothing, But Speaks Volumes
Read more: Lavrov-Rubio Meeting in Manila: A Dialogue That Says Nothing, But Speaks VolumesOn 23 July 2026, Sergei Lavrov and Marco Rubio met in Manila, on the sidelines of the ASEAN ministerial meeting. Thirty-five minutes. No more. A short, formal exchange, with no major announcement. And…
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Mali: The Siege of Anéfis, Symbol of a Proxy War
Read more: Mali: The Siege of Anéfis, Symbol of a Proxy WarThe Anéfis camp is under siege. Since 22 July 2026, the jihadists of JNIM and the separatists of the Azawad Liberation Front have encircled this Malian army position in the north of the…
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Ukraine: The Dismissal of Syrskyi, a Weak Signal of Collapse
Read more: Ukraine: The Dismissal of Syrskyi, a Weak Signal of CollapseOn 21 July 2026, Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed his commander-in-chief. In six days, he changed his two top military officials. It is no longer a reform. It is a signal. A few days earlier,…
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Venezuela: Chavism Without Maduro
Read more: Venezuela: Chavism Without MaduroOn 3 January 2026, Nicolás Maduro was arrested. Captured by American forces. Chavism did not disappear. It changed its face. A new power has settled in Caracas. Delcy Rodríguez, interim president. Her brother…
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European Union: The Federal Project Put to the Test by the Peoples
Read more: European Union: The Federal Project Put to the Test by the PeoplesThe European Union will not disappear. It is too deeply embedded in economies, laws, and habits. But it is condemned to transform. The question is not whether it will survive, but in what…
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Space: The Orbital Wild West
Read more: Space: The Orbital Wild WestSpace is no longer the sanctuary of international cooperation. It has become a battlefield. Two projects, two visions, and one shared observation: the rules of the game have yet to be written. On…
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AI: The Model War Has Been Declared
Read more: AI: The Model War Has Been DeclaredOn 17 July 2026, Moonshot AI launched Kimi K3. A model with 2.8 trillion parameters. For the first time, a Chinese artificial intelligence surpassed American models on the benchmarks. Its score of 1,679…
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US Strategic Reserves: The Energy Tipping Point
Read more: US Strategic Reserves: The Energy Tipping PointOn 20 July 2026, the United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 311.4 million barrels. This is the lowest level since March 1983. Forty-three years ago, Ronald Reagan was president, and the Cold…
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Iran: Ground War on the Table
Read more: Iran: Ground War on the TableThe signals are piling up. For several days, Donald Trump’s statements, American troop movements and Iranian preparations have been outlining a prospect no one wanted to contemplate: a ground war in Iran. More…
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France 2027: The Narrow Margins of the Next President
Read more: France 2027: The Narrow Margins of the Next PresidentThe French presidential election of April 2027 is approaching. The candidates are not yet officially declared, but names are already circulating. Jordan Bardella, ÉdouarThe French presidential election of April 2027 is approaching. The…
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Jordan: The American Sanctuary Turned Target
Read more: Jordan: The American Sanctuary Turned TargetJordan was a sanctuary. For years, American forces found safe refuge there, far from the tensions of the Gulf. In July 2026, that sanctuary was shattered. Four Iranian attacks in five days. The…
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China: The Silent Winner of the Iran-United States War
Read more: China: The Silent Winner of the Iran-United States WarChina has not fired a single shot in the Iran-United States war. Yet it may be the main beneficiary. It has observed, it has waited, it has reaped. While the United States was…
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De-dollarisation: The Boomerang of American Sanctions
Read more: De-dollarisation: The Boomerang of American SanctionsThe dollar is no longer what it used to be. In 2001, it accounted for 73% of global foreign exchange reserves. By 2025, that figure had fallen to 54%. A drop of nearly…
