The signals are piling up. For several days, Donald Trump’s statements, American troop movements and Iranian preparations have been outlining a prospect no one wanted to contemplate: a ground war in Iran.
More than 50,000 American soldiers are already deployed in the Middle East and placed on high alert, according to CENTCOM. Additional F-16s and F-35s have been sent from Europe. The Pentagon has finalised operational plans for the next phase. The Washington Post puts it bluntly: the United States is preparing for a larger-scale war.
In Washington’s crosshairs, two symbolic and strategic targets.
The first is Kharg Island. A speck of nothing, 55 kilometres off the Iranian coast. But that speck handles 90% of the country’s oil exports. On 17 July 2026, Donald Trump declared: “If we weaken them enough, I will do it.” A direct threat, far from an improvisation. According to the Wall Street Journal, plans exist to take the island. A force of 800 to 5,000 soldiers could be deployed, under air cover.
The second target is Pickaxe Mountain. A nuclear facility buried under 90 to 140 metres of rock, in northern Iran. A bunker that airstrikes are struggling to penetrate. On 18 July, Donald Trump announced: “We’re going to blow up Pickaxe Mountain. Tell the Iranians to get ready.” Israeli officials, quoted by Israel Hayom, are concerned that American strikes have not sufficiently damaged the Iranian nuclear programme. Pickaxe Mountain remains a priority objective for Washington and Tel Aviv.
Faced with these threats, Iran is not sitting idle.
Mohsen Rezaei, military advisor to the Supreme Leader, warned on 19 July that Iran could launch “large-scale offensive operations” if American strikes continued. A statement that is no empty boast. Iran has deployed additional troops around Kharg Island, according to the Times of India. Portable MANPADS air defence systems and anti-personnel mines have been installed. The island is fortified, ready to withstand an assault.
The Revolutionary Guards, for their part, have broadcast threatening messages aimed at American troops. “Every time Iran kills an American soldier, they will pay for that act many times over,” Donald Trump retaliated, quoted by several channels.
But between threats and action, there is a chasm. Several major obstacles make a ground invasion uncertain.
The first is the shortage of munitions. The Washington Post reports that stocks of missiles and anti-aircraft interceptors are running low. The air war has already consumed a significant portion of American arsenals. A ground war would require massive quantities of precision munitions, which the United States does not have in abundance.
The second is opposition from Gulf allies. According to the Times of India, Gulf countries have urged Washington not to occupy Kharg. They fear Iranian retaliation against their own oil infrastructure, or even a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. A ground invasion would endanger their direct interests.
The third is Donald Trump’s political calculus. Less than four months before the midterm elections, a ground war in Iran would be a risky gamble. Casualties could be heavy. Mobilisation, unpopular. The American president, according to The Week, is still hesitating to deploy ground troops, despite his repeated threats.
The fourth is the operational difficulty. General Donahoe, quoted by Vietnam.vn, posed the central question: “The crucial question is not how to capture Kharg Island. The issue is not about attacking immediately, but about holding the position.” Once taken, Kharg would have to be defended against Iranian counter-attacks. A far more complex task than the initial assault.
Finally, there are the strategic petroleum reserves. The US SPR has fallen to 311.4 million barrels, the lowest level since 1983. A ground war would send prices soaring, and the United States would have less margin to absorb the shock.
According to our analysis, here are the most likely scenarios.
Controlled escalation, first: continued airstrikes, limited amphibious operations, without a massive ground invasion. A limited ground war, next: the capture of Kharg by a few thousand soldiers, under air cover, to strangle Iranian exports. A massive ground invasion, finally: the deployment of tens of thousands of troops, with lasting occupation of strategic territories. The status quo remains possible: the war of attrition continues, without a decision to invade.
A ground war in Iran is on the table. The plans are finalised. The threats are real. But the obstacles remain major. It will only happen if a major Iranian escalation forces Trump to react, or if Washington decides to “finish the job” before the elections. The risk is maximal. The decision, uncertain.
By the editorial team
Geostrat Watch – Deciphering the world to better anticipate.iper.
Sources
1. Déploiement de 50 000 soldats américains
https://vietnam.vn/en/iran-announces-counterattack-israel-warns-missiles-targeting-jordan-could-land-on-its-territory
https://vietnam.vn/en/us-warplanes-and-supplies-make-a-quiet-return-to-the-middle-east-after-trumps-ceasefire-plea
2. Île de Kharg comme cible
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/us-iran-news-live-updates-war-american-soldiers-killed-jordan-death-toll-latest-news-19-july-2026/articleshow/112865284.cms
https://www.theweek.in/news/world/2026/07/17/trump-threatens-to-seize-iranian-island-to-punish-regime-killing-us-soldiers.html
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-threatens-capture-iran-oil-island-if-its-nuclear-program-not-curbed-2026-07-17/
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/07/trump-says-us-will-blow-iran-nuclear-site-if-talks-fail
3. Pickaxe Mountain comme cible
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/07/trump-says-us-will-blow-iran-nuclear-site-if-talks-fail
https://www.theweek.in/news/world/2026/07/17/trump-threatens-to-seize-iranian-island-to-punish-regime-killing-us-soldiers.html
https://vietnam.vn/en/trump-threatens-to-blow-up-pickaxe-mountain-a-facility-near-natanz-in-iran
4. Plans finalisés par le Pentagone
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/07/19/us-iran-military-plans-war/
https://www.ukranews.com/amp/in-washington-they-are-preparing-for-a-serious-war-with-iran.html
https://www.theweek.in/news/world/2026/07/17/trump-threatens-to-seize-iranian-island-to-punish-regime-killing-us-soldiers.html
5. Trump menace de “faire payer” l’Iran
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-threatens-capture-iran-oil-island-if-its-nuclear-program-not-curbed-2026-07-17/
6. Fortification iranienne de Kharg
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/us-iran-news-live-updates-war-american-soldiers-killed-jordan-death-toll-latest-news-19-july-2026/articleshow/112865284.cms
https://www.samaa.tv/2087373613-iran-threatens-offensive-if-us-attacks-continue
7. Iran menace une “offensive à grande échelle”
https://www.samaa.tv/2087373613-iran-threatens-offensive-if-us-attacks-continue
https://vietnam.vn/en/iran-announces-counterattack-israel-warns-missiles-targeting-jordan-could-land-on-its-territory
8. Pays du Golfe exhortent les États-Unis à ne pas occuper Kharg
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/us-iran-news-live-updates-war-american-soldiers-killed-jordan-death-toll-latest-news-19-july-2026/articleshow/112865284.cms
9. Réserves stratégiques de pétrole au plus bas
https://edgenews.com/world/us-draws-on-strategic-oil-reserves-as-iranian-hostilities-continue/
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-strategic-petroleum-reserve-drops-lowest-level-since-1983-2026-07-17/
https://gtvnewsng.com/us-strategic-oil-reserves-drop-to-1983-levels/
10. Manque de munitions américaines
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/07/19/us-iran-military-plans-war/
https://www.ukranews.com/amp/in-washington-they-are-preparing-for-a-serious-war-with-iran.html
11. Trump hésite à déployer des troupes au sol
https://www.theweek.in/news/world/2026/07/17/trump-threatens-to-seize-iranian-island-to-punish-regime-killing-us-soldiers.html
12. Pickaxe Mountain (Israel Hayom)
https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/07/12/a-single-mountain-can-shape-the-iran-nuclear-crisis/
13. Commandement central américain (CENTCOM)
https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/3901778/centcom-strikes-continue-in-support-of-freedom-of-navigation-and-stability-in-the/
14. Reuters sur l’offensive iranienne
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-top-leader-adviser-says-tehran-may-go-offensive-2026-07-17/