For two days, American bombers have stayed on the ground. No strikes on Tehran. No missiles on IRGC bases. This is not a truce. It is an admission.
The U.S. military is running out of ammunition.
In just a few weeks of conflict, the United States has fired more than 1,100 JASSM missiles. Annual production is 500 to 600 units. Two years of production consumed in less than a month. The same applies to Tomahawks: over 1,000 fired, annual production around 200. Patriot, THAAD, SM-6, and SM-3 interceptors follow the same trajectory. Stockpiles are dwindling. Factories cannot keep up.
The Pentagon has changed how it presents casualties on its website. A new page, more discreet. Eighteen dead, 624 wounded. Numbers that weigh on American public opinion. Numbers they are trying to hide.
U.S. military doctrine is built on precision strikes. When the ammunition runs out, the doctrine falters.
The War of the Three Seas
Iran understood this. Its strategy is not to win militarily. It is to hold on. To turn the conflict into a war of attrition where time is on Tehran’s side.
The Strait of Hormuz is strangled. Fewer than ten ships per day, compared to 15 to 21 million barrels daily before the crisis. Alternative routes exist — Fujairah, Petroline — but their capacity caps at 9 to 11 million barrels. Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and southern Iraq remain entirely dependent on the strait. Qatari LNG, a fifth of the global market, is under threat.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is under Houthi fire. Only eleven ships per day. Four million barrels daily at risk. The Saudi refinery at Jizan has been burning for 48 hours, struck by an attack. A column of black smoke visible for miles. The image of a conflict spreading.
And then there is the Caspian Sea. An Iranian vessel hit by a Ukrainian drone. One sailor killed. Drones capable of reaching 2,000 to 3,400 kilometers. Moscow remains silent. Russia, Iran’s ally, says nothing. Embarrassment or calculation? The Caspian is bringing together two wars that everyone wanted to keep separate.
Brent crude has fallen back to $91.20, down nearly 6% since the strikes were suspended. Markets are pricing in de-escalation. But volatility remains extreme.
The Netanyahu-Trump Dilemma
On July 28, 2026, Benjamin Netanyahu meets Donald Trump in Washington. The Israeli Prime Minister is bringing new intelligence on the reconstitution of Iranian capabilities. He wants action.
Trump, through Vice President JD Vance, is offering a carrot: “If Iran abandons its nuclear program, the United States will help it become prosperous.” Iran threatens to retaliate against any attack.
But the stick is broken. Ammunition stockpiles are empty. If Netanyahu gets a green light to strike, with what? Israel has struck alone in the past — the Iraqi reactor in 1981, the Syrian site in 2007. But Iranian facilities are far more protected, deeper, more dispersed. An Israeli strike without massive U.S. support is a risky gamble.
Trump’s proposal may be an admission. The military option is no longer credible. The carrot is replacing the stick, not by choice, but by necessity.
How long can U.S. stockpiles last? Two weeks? Three? The answer will determine the course of the conflict. No one knows it.
By the editorial team
Geostrat Watch – Deciphering the world to better anticipate.
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