Lebanon: Israel Advances Alone, America No Longer Controls Anything

Israel violated the ceasefire in Lebanon. And it is no longer even hiding it.

Channel 13, a mainstream Israeli network, declared: “The IDF violated the ceasefire in Lebanon.” This is not an accusation from Hezbollah. It is not a diplomatic leak. It is a confession. Broadcast in prime time.

Washington, for its part, responded with a single sentence: “We are aware of the situation.”

Nothing more. No call for restraint. No condemnation. No mediation. The ally no longer listens. America no longer controls anything.

The Israeli confession

Channel 13 is not a marginal outlet. It is one of Israel’s leading networks. When it states that the army violated the ceasefire, it is not an opinion. It is a report.

This confession reveals deep tensions between the IDF and the Netanyahu government. The army knows escalation is dangerous — two Israeli soldiers were killed in Majdal Zoun. The government is pushing anyway.

Israel is no longer hiding. It is owning it.

The military operations

The facts are documented. Airstrikes targeted Machaa Al Mansouri, Tibnin, and Majdal Zoun. Ground incursions — D9 bulldozers, Merkava tanks, Humvees — entered Lebanese territory. Two Israeli soldiers died in Majdal Zoun.

The November 2024 ceasefire is de facto dead. UNIFIL notes it. Reuters and AFP document it. The Rome negotiations are suspended.

Day by day, the framework agreement crumples further into torn paper.

Washington silent

“We are aware of the situation.”

That is the sentence the State Department found. No call for de-escalation. No condemnation. No mediation. Just a notation.

The New York Times writes that Israel is acting “without Washington’s consent.” The Wall Street Journal describes an ally “testing American red lines.” The Washington Post headlines “American impotence in the face of Israeli escalation.”

In 2006, Washington could call Jerusalem and secure a truce. In 2014, American mediation extracted a ceasefire. In 2021, Biden threw his full weight behind it. In 2026, the State Department says “We are aware of the situation.”

An American diplomat reads the dispatches. He sees the Israeli strikes. He knows his country can do nothing. He writes the most powerless sentence in diplomacy. Then he waits for the next one.

The Iran parallel

America’s failure in Iran has freed Israel.

If Washington cannot defeat Tehran, it cannot restrain Jerusalem either. Allies have understood that American protection is no longer guaranteed. So they act alone. Israel in Lebanon. Saudi Arabia negotiating with Tehran. The Emirates diversifying their alliances.

CSIS speaks of an “American failure emboldening Israel to act independently.” Brookings notes that “allies no longer trust American protection.” Foreign Affairs headlines “America’s credibility crisis.”

This is the definition of a retracting empire. The center no longer holds. The periphery is emancipating itself.

The fire spreads

Israel violates the ceasefire in Lebanon. Washington takes note. Iran watches. Hezbollah waits.

The ally no longer listens to the center. The firefighter is on fire. The allies are lighting their own blazes. No one is putting anything out.

This is what we have been calling, since August 6, the fall without a net. The fire is spreading. No one is stopping it.

By the editorial team
Geostrat Watch – Deciphering the world to better anticipate.

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