On 29 July 2026, in the Jordanian Parliament, a member of parliament took the floor. The chamber was full. He demanded the withdrawal of American forces from Jordanian territory. Hundreds of citizens had signed an open letter demanding the same thing. In the streets, military convoys were being booed. This is no longer an ally complaining. It is an ally challenging.
Jordan. One of the most loyal partners of the United States in the Middle East. If Amman wavers, the entire structure of American alliances trembles.
The Gulf Seeks Other Protectors
Kuwait is taking no chances. On 26 July, it ratified a defence cooperation agreement with Pakistan. A security pact that diversifies its protectors. The message is clear: the United States is no longer enough.
Iranian strikes have hit the energy heart of the Gulf. A Shahed-136 drone strike targeted an oil facility in Kuwait. In Bahrain, explosions rang out. The American bases, meant to protect these countries, have become targets. Historic allies are looking for safety nets elsewhere.
Saudi Arabia observes, hesitant. It has not broken with Washington, but it has not closed the door to other partners either. Riyadh knows that every Patriot fired over the Gulf is a missile that no longer protects anyone.
Iraq, the Battlefield That Divides
On 29 July, American-Saudi strikes targeted Iranian militias in Iraq. Baghdad immediately condemned. The Iraqi Parliament denounced a “flagrant violation of sovereignty.” The coalition against Iran is cracking in the middle.
Iraq is not an adversary. It is an ally turning away, a battlefield dividing the Western camp. Pro-Iranian militias threaten to retaliate. American troops on Iraqi soil are more vulnerable than ever.
The Economic Boomerang Effect
The Iran-US war is not only ruining Tehran. It is ruining Washington’s allies.
Saudi Arabia sees its GDP contract by 4.8%. The sharpest contraction since the pandemic. Oil exports are paralysed by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi strikes.
In Germany, inflation reaches 2.8% in July, driven by energy prices. The chemical industry, the automotive sector, steelmaking are suffocating. Sanctions against Russia and Iran are turning against Europe.
Ukraine, meanwhile, watches its military aid melt away. The 400 million dollars promised by Washington are frozen. Shells, missiles, attention — everything is going to the Middle East. Kyiv is the collateral damage of a war that is not its own.
The Exhausted Military
The numbers are known. CSIS has published them. The United States has consumed nearly 67% of its Patriot stockpiles in less than six months. THAAD interceptors are at their lowest. Tomahawks are becoming scarce. Annual production does not cover the losses.
Each night of strikes digs a hole in the American arsenal. The most powerful military machine in the world is running on credit. It is not short of targets. It is short of ammunition.
China, the Silent Winner
While Washington exhausts itself in strikes and sanctions, Beijing consolidates. Without firing a single missile.
On 15 July 2026, Pew Research published a survey conducted in 36 countries among 42,151 adults. The finding is a silent earthquake: for the first time, China is perceived more positively than the United States in most countries surveyed. In 2023, the United States still led China. In 2026, they lead in only six countries.
In Canada, favourable opinion towards China rose from 14% to 44% between 2023 and 2026, while that towards the United States fell from 57% to 33%. In Pakistan, 84% consider China a reliable partner — against 36% for the United States. In South Africa, 72% against 46%. And 75% of respondents in 17 middle-income countries believe the United States “interferes a great deal or a fair amount” in the affairs of other countries, against 45% for China.
China does not lock in through military bases. It locks in through contracts, debts, and infrastructure. The leading trading partner of over 120 countries — twice as many as the United States. The Belt and Road Initiative has 150 signatory countries for over 1,000 billion dollars in cumulative investments. Ports, railways, power stations.
The Strait of Hormuz crisis is driving up crude prices for Europe, but not for Beijing. China is the main buyer of Iranian and Russian oil — with discounts that sanctions make even more advantageous. While Europe pays the high price, China secures its supply.
And military build-up continues. From 6 to 13 July 2026, at the height of the Middle East crisis, the Chinese and Russian navies conducted Joint Sea-2026 off Qingdao. Cruiser Varyag, Type 052D and Type 055 destroyers. Two submarines in a single exercise — a first. A discreet signal sent to the Pacific.
The Tipping Point
The tipping point is not a single event. It is an accumulation. Jordan challenging. The Gulf diversifying. Iraq condemning. Stockpiles running out. Inflation eating away at allies. Polls shifting. And China consolidating.
Iran has not won the war. But it has demonstrated that a middle power can stand up to the United States. This precedent is more dangerous for Washington than a military defeat.
The question is no longer whether American power is declining. It is at what pace — and who is consolidating in the meantime.
By the editorial team
Geostrat Watch – Deciphering the world to better anticipate.
Quellen
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