The war in the Middle East has a cost. Not just in human lives. In dollars, in euros, in hryvnias, in rials. Ukrainians who can no longer get around. Yemenis dying of hunger. Iranians under bombs and sanctions. The French paying premium prices at the pump. Germans losing their jobs.
And in the meantime, some are getting richer.
Here is who pays, who profits, and why.
The Big Losers
Ukraine — The War Economy Is Suffocating
Petrol prices are rising relentlessly. A-95 is at 82 hryvnias per litre, diesel at 92.21. Over 160 service stations have been destroyed. The distribution network has collapsed. Direct American aid is frozen: only 400 million dollars for 2026-2027. Deliveries go through European intermediaries, PURL funds, diverted circuits.
The consequence: getting around costs a fortune. Food prices are exploding. Winter is approaching without heating. Ukraine is not at war with Iran. But it is paying the price.
Yemen — Famine Is Setting In
Twelve years of Saudi blockade. Twelve billion dollars in damage to the port of Al Hudaydah. The Houthis are now imposing their own maritime blockade. Ports are blocked. Food imports are paralysed. Millions of children are suffering from malnutrition. The Iran-US war has only worsened a humanitarian catastrophe that has been going on for over a decade.
Iran — Strangled but Standing
American sanctions impose 100% tariffs on energy imports. Strikes are hitting economic infrastructure. Oil can no longer be exported normally. Power cuts, affected hospitals, galloping inflation.
But Iran is holding the Strait of Hormuz. And dictating part of the price of a barrel.
France — The Price at the Pump
Twenty to thirty cents more per litre of diesel and petrol in two weeks. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the rise in crude prices are the direct cause. Heating oil will increase before winter. Food prices follow, because transport costs more. Purchasing power is eroding. Modest households are the hardest hit.
Germany — The Engine Is Stalling
Inflation reaches 2.8% in July, driven by energy. Varta files for bankruptcy. Porsche sees its profits collapse by 98%. Continental cuts 10,000 jobs. Thyssenkrupp, 11,000. Siemens, 6,000. Growth stalls at 0.6% in 2026 after four years of stagnation. The energy crisis is worsening an already critical situation.
India, China, Japan — Importers Under Pressure
Brent is at $91.20. WTI at $84.40. India, dependent on Gulf oil, is suffering inflation. Japan is seeing its import costs explode. China, for its part, is securing its supplies via Iran and Russia at reduced prices.
Who Is Getting Richer?
Saudi Arabia — The Paradox
The price of a barrel is rising. Revenues too. But GDP is contracting by 4.8% in the second quarter of 2026. The oil sector is falling by 24.7%. Houthi strikes are hitting critical infrastructure. Citizens are protected by subsidies, but they are living in insecurity.
United States — Protected, but Not Unscathed
A net oil exporter: companies are making profits. But fuel prices are also rising in the United States. The Fed is not cutting rates because of energy inflation. The impact is contained, but it is real.
The Paradox
This is the most striking observation. The United States, a net oil exporter, is experiencing a moderate impact. Its allies — Germany, France, Ukraine, Yemen — are bearing the weight of the war. The American umbrella is no longer a protection. It has become a factor of economic vulnerability.
The Boomerang
The war in the Middle East was supposed to weaken Iran. It has sent energy prices soaring, eroded the purchasing power of allies, enriched producers, and reinforced the perception of American decline.
The boomerang has been thrown. It is already here. War always has a price. But it is never those who start it who pay it.
By the editorial team
Geostrat Watch – Deciphering the world to better anticipate.
Sources
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