The Ukrainian conflict has entered its fifth year. No decisive breakthrough, no collapse. A war of attrition, slow, methodical, where every kilometre gained is paid for in human lives and destroyed infrastructure.
Here is the state of play, factual and sober.
The Military Situation
Combat is intense on several axes. Sumy, Kharkiv, the Donbass, Kupiansk, Krasny Lyman, Dobropillia, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson. The front lines remain relatively stable, but Russia is advancing locally.
On 24 July, Russian forces liberated Belitske, in the direction of Dobropillia. On 22 July, Blahodatne, in the Zaporizhzhia region. On 20 July, Volne, in the Dnipropetrovsk region. The same day, Artelne, in the Kharkiv region. Fighting is ongoing in Kazacha Lopan, north of Kharkiv. The advance is slow, but steady.
Ukraine is attempting counter-attacks. At Kondratovka and Pisarivka, in the Sumy region, they were repelled. Attempts to accumulate reserves at Kazacha Lopan and Makarovo were thwarted by Russian aviation.
Russia is conducting a massive campaign on Odessa. Twenty-eight ships have been hit since the strikes began. Maritime traffic has been interrupted for four days. Maersk has suspended its operations. Grain exports are threatened.
A Russian strike on an arms exhibition near Kiev killed 10 people and wounded 100. Warehouses and logistics centres have been hit.
Ukraine is striking back in depth. A massive raid of 571 drones was launched in a single night against Russian territory. Strikes targeted warehouses in Simferopol, Novosaratovka, Shushary, and Saint Petersburg. A strike on Kirov killed 6 people and wounded 26. The border regions of Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk are suffering near-daily attacks. In 24 hours, 3 dead and 32 wounded were recorded on the Russian side.
The body exchange on 16 July saw 501 Ukrainian remains returned against 31 Russian ones. A ratio of 16 to 1.
The Zaporizhzhia plant remains a point of tension. A Ukrainian drone strike killed an engineer on 15 July. The IAEA is concerned about the site’s safety.
The Economic Consequences
The war is weighing on both economies, but asymmetrically.
In Ukraine, maritime traffic is interrupted. Grain exports are threatened. Logistics are disrupted. Western aid is crucial, but no longer guaranteed. The United States has frozen 400 million dollars in aid. The funds will not be released before 2029. Ukraine is struggling to sustain its war effort without this support.
In Russia, the economy is resisting. GDP rose by 0.3% in May. The official poverty rate is 6.7%. The number of rouble millionaires increased by 22,000 in 2025, a figure that must be relativised by the value of the Russian currency. Russia is in a position to sustain a prolonged war.
In Europe, economic unity is being tested. Greece obtained an exemption on LNG sanctions, a sign that national interests sometimes take precedence over displayed solidarity. Soaring energy prices are weighing on the continent’s competitiveness.
In the United States, the freezing of 400 million dollars in aid is a worrying signal for Kiev. The total cost of the war for the American taxpayer is considerable.
The Political Situation
In Ukraine, power is wavering. The dismissal of Defence Minister Fedorov, then of Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi, triggered prolonged protests. Fedorov refused any post other than the one he held. Zelensky published a photo without him. Mobilisation is drawing increasing criticism. Ukraine is now receiving 2,000 bulletproof vests for women, a sign of a possible extension of conscription.
In Russia, Vladimir Putin affirms that the objectives set in June 2024 will be achieved. The regime is stable. Arrests for filming Russian strikes continue. The population supports the war effort.
In Europe, political cracks are appearing. Hungary is blocking Ukraine’s EU accession. Poland is showing signs of fatigue. Hate crimes against Ukrainians have been reported in Pลock.
Western Military Aid
American aid is in suspense. The freezing of 400 million dollars has been approved. Raytheon is cooperating with Ukraine on the production of Patriot missiles, but this does not replace direct deliveries.
European aid is continuing, but cracks are appearing. The Greek exemption on LNG, the Hungarian blockade on EU accession, the hate crimes in Poland. Fatigue is setting in.
The Diplomatic Situation
The “3+2” format from Anchorage is considered a failure by Marco Rubio. Lavrov accuses the United States of having changed its approach. Positions remain irreconcilable.
No active mediation is underway. China, India, and the Global South have not taken a frontal position. The UN is absent from the discussions.
The Scenarios
The war of attrition is the most likely scenario. Russia is advancing slowly. Ukraine is resisting, but struggling to maintain its troop numbers. Western aid is no longer guaranteed.
De-escalation is unlikely in the short term. Positions are too far apart.
A major Russian offensive is possible. The liberation of Belitske and the fighting in Kazacha Lopan could precede a larger push.
Without American aid, Ukraine would be in great difficulty. The freezing of 400 million dollars is a worrying signal.
The factor most likely to change the situation is the 2028 American presidential election, or a decision by Trump to drastically reduce aid to Ukraine. In the short term, the November 2026 midterm elections could alter the balance of power in Congress and weigh on support for Kiev.
The Ukrainian conflict is not a lightning war. It is a war of attrition. Every day, deaths. Every night, strikes. And for now, no way out.
By the editorial team
Geostrat Watch โ Deciphering the world to better anticipate.
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