On 3 January 2026, Nicolás Maduro was arrested. Captured by American forces. Chavism did not disappear. It changed its face.
A new power has settled in Caracas. Delcy Rodríguez, interim president. Her brother Jorge, president of the Assembly. The Rodríguez brothers run the country under Washington’s benevolent supervision. The “Rodrigato”, as it is now called, has replaced Maduro’s inner circle, reorganised the army, and adopted liberal economic reforms. An amnesty law was passed under American pressure.
The Venezuelan transition is a laboratory. The laboratory of the American strategy in the 21st century: destabilisation through the opposition, military intervention, the installation of a docile indigenous power, and the maintenance of the status quo under the cover of humanitarian aid.
The Instrumentalisation of Machado
María Corina Machado was the face of the opposition. She won the 2024 primary with 92% of the vote. She was excluded from the presidential election by Maduro’s regime. She received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025. She supported the American military intervention.
And then, she made a symbolic gesture.
In January 2026, a few days after Maduro’s arrest, Machado met Donald Trump. She offered him her Nobel medal. A gesture of allegiance. A way of saying: “I give you everything, you can trust me.”
Washington thanked her. Then pushed her aside.
By spring 2026, the State Department had made it clear that Machado was no longer indispensable. She was judged “potentially disruptive”. Too radical. Too independent. Too unpredictable for the new balance Washington was seeking to establish.
In June, she tried to return to Venezuela. Her plane was blocked in Curaçao. American pressure. Today, she is in exile. She is no longer at the negotiating table. The transition dialogue, announced for 1 August, will take place without her.
The Rodrigato, the New Face of Chavism
Delcy Rodríguez is the embodiment of this new power. She was Maduro’s minister, vice-president, a figure of radical chavism. Today, she is the interim president recognised by Washington. She has accepted the liberal reforms, the partial lifting of sanctions, the reopening of oil to foreign investors. She has accepted American supervision.
Her brother Jorge controls the Parliament. Together, they have locked down the process. Maduro’s inner circle has been pushed aside. Military officials too closely linked to the old regime have been replaced. The army has remained loyal, but it has been reorganised.
Chavism was not destroyed. It was co-opted. Washington did not impose an occupation government. It chose an indigenous power, docile, capable of maintaining order while implementing the required reforms.
The Humanitarian Crisis as a Pretext
On 24 June 2026, a double earthquake struck Venezuela. More than 4,700 dead. Massive destruction. The state, already fragile, was judged incapable of responding.
American aid arrived. Massive. Visible. Coordinated. But it is also political. Reconstruction serves as a justification for a prolonged presence. Under the cover of humanitarian emergency, Washington is locking down control of oil resources and supervising the political process.
The transition dialogue, announced for 1 August between Delcy Rodríguez and Dinorah Figuera, the opposition figure from the 2015 Assembly, was postponed indefinitely in late July. Officially, for logistical reasons linked to the earthquake. Unofficially, because the Americans want to ensure the framework is fully locked down before opening discussions.
A Protectorate Under the Guise of Democracy
Venezuela is not a democracy in transition. It is an American protectorate under the guise of democratic transition.
Machado was used to destabilise Maduro. She was cast aside when she became inconvenient. The Rodrigato is implementing the reforms demanded by Washington. The humanitarian crisis justifies a prolonged presence. Venezuelan oil is once again accessible to foreign investors.
The question remains open. Will the dialogue take place? And if so, under what conditions? Will the Rodríguez brothers remain in power, or will they in turn be pushed aside when they have ceased to be useful?
By the editorial team
Geostrat Watch – Deciphering the world to better anticipate.
Sources
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