Space: The Orbital Wild West

Space is no longer the sanctuary of international cooperation. It has become a battlefield. Two projects, two visions, and one shared observation: the rules of the game have yet to be written.

On one side, Jilin-1. China’s Earth observation constellation now has 152 satellites in orbit, out of 162 launched. Ninety percent of them offer a resolution of 0.5 metres. They can revisit any point on the globe 38 to 40 times a day, meaning an observation every 35 to 40 minutes. The stated goal of Chang Guang, the constellation’s operator, is to reach 300 satellites by 2027, with minute-by-minute revisit capability and resolution dropping to 30 centimetres, even 20 to 22 centimetres in certain configurations. High-definition video streaming is already available in real time.

Iran has understood this well. The Revolutionary Guards are using Jilin-1 data to track the movements of American and Israeli forces. The Muwaffaq Al-Salti base in Jordan is under continuous surveillance. Troop movements, aircraft rotations, logistical deployments: everything is visible. Iran combines Jilin-1 imagery with China’s BeiDou and Russia’s GLONASS navigation systems to bypass American GPS jamming. A capability Tehran could never have developed alone.

In April 2025, the US Treasury sanctioned Chang Guang. To no effect. The data is accessible, the images circulate on social networks, and the Western monopoly on space-based intelligence is dead. Jilin-1 has democratised surveillance from space. For better and for worse.

On the other side of the Pacific, a project of an entirely different nature. Eärendil-1, named after a character from Tolkien’s mythology, is a satellite equipped with an 18-metre diameter mirror. Placed in orbit at an altitude of 625 kilometres, it is designed to reflect sunlight back to Earth at night, creating a beam 5 to 6 kilometres in diameter, as bright as the full moon. The stated goal of Reflect Orbital, the Californian start-up developing it, is to illuminate areas for rescue operations, construction sites, or to extend the production of solar power plants after sunset.

On 9 July 2026, the US Federal Communications Commission gave the green light for the launch of a demonstrator, scheduled for late 2026, likely via a SpaceX rocket from Vandenberg Air Force Base. The start-up raised 20 million dollars in 2025. Its long-term ambition: to deploy 50,000 mirrors in orbit by 2035.

The opposition is massive. The American Astronomical Society stated that the project “cannot be considered to serve the public interest”. The European Southern Observatory speaks of “an existential threat to optical astronomy”. DarkSky International, the Royal Astronomical Society, the Vera C. Rubin Observatory: all filed comments in opposition. Nearly 2,000 in total.

The FCC made its ruling. Astronomical concerns “fall outside the scope” of its review. The authorisation covers only a single experimental satellite, not a constellation. But the precedent has been set.

International law, meanwhile, has not kept pace. The 1967 Outer Space Treaty is silent on space commerce and vague on military uses. The draft treaties on the prevention of an arms race in outer space, presented in 2008 and 2014, never came to fruition. The term “peaceful use” remains subject to divergent interpretation: non-military for some, non-aggressive for others. Dual-use objects, such as Jilin-1 or Eärendil-1, complicate any legal classification.

Faced with this vacuum, each state is making its own rules. Forty-one countries have adopted national laws regulating space activities, including military ones. Germany, in its 2026 space strategy, considers space to be “the centre of the conflict itself”. China is developing a commercial constellation that serves its diplomacy and its allies. The United States is authorising a private mirror that will illuminate the Earth at night.

Jilin-1 and Eärendil-1 are only the first signs of a profound transformation. Space is becoming a theatre of operations, of commerce, of surveillance. The rules of the game remain to be written.

For now, it is an orbital Wild West. And in a Wild West, the strongest win.

By the editorial team
Geostrat Watch – Deciphering the world to better anticipate.er.

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