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  • Lavrov-Rubio Meeting in Manila: A Dialogue That Says Nothing, But Speaks Volumes

    Lavrov-Rubio Meeting in Manila: A Dialogue That Says Nothing, But Speaks Volumes

    24/07/2026
    Asia-Pacific, Decrypts, Governance & International Law, North America, Security & Defence, Ukraine & Russia

    On 23 July 2026, Sergei Lavrov and Marco Rubio met in Manila, on the sidelines of the ASEAN ministerial meeting. Thirty-five minutes. No more. A short, formal exchange, with no major announcement. And yet, this meeting is a signal. The two men had not met face-to-face since September 2025. The mere fact that they are…

  • Mali: The Siege of Anéfis, Symbol of a Proxy War

    Mali: The Siege of Anéfis, Symbol of a Proxy War

    24/07/2026
    Africa, Decrypts, Europe & NATO, Governance & International Law, North America, Security & Defence

    The Anéfis camp is under siege. Since 22 July 2026, the jihadists of JNIM and the separatists of the Azawad Liberation Front have encircled this Malian army position in the north of the country. An improbable coalition between Islamists and Tuaregs, which says much about the complexity of the conflict. Shells and kamikaze drones have…

  • Ukraine: The Dismissal of Syrskyi, a Weak Signal of Collapse

    Ukraine: The Dismissal of Syrskyi, a Weak Signal of Collapse

    23/07/2026
    Decrypts, Europe & NATO, Security & Defence, Society & Media, Technology & Cyber, Ukraine & Russia

    On 21 July 2026, Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed his commander-in-chief. In six days, he changed his two top military officials. It is no longer a reform. It is a signal. A few days earlier, on 15 July, Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov had been dismissed. Protests immediately broke out in fourteen Ukrainian cities. The slogans demanded Fedorov’s…

  • Venezuela: Chavism Without Maduro

    Venezuela: Chavism Without Maduro

    23/07/2026
    Decrypts, Governance & International Law, Latin America & the Caribbean, North America

    On 3 January 2026, Nicolás Maduro was arrested. Captured by American forces. Chavism did not disappear. It changed its face. A new power has settled in Caracas. Delcy Rodríguez, interim president. Her brother Jorge, president of the Assembly. The Rodríguez brothers run the country under Washington’s benevolent supervision. The “Rodrigato”, as it is now called,…

  • European Union: The Federal Project Put to the Test by the Peoples

    European Union: The Federal Project Put to the Test by the Peoples

    23/07/2026
    Europe & NATO, Governance & International Law, Projections, Society & Media

    The European Union will not disappear. It is too deeply embedded in economies, laws, and habits. But it is condemned to transform. The question is not whether it will survive, but in what form. Two forces are clashing in silence. The first is the federal project. It advances in small steps, without ever declaring itself…

  • Space: The Orbital Wild West

    Space: The Orbital Wild West

    22/07/2026
    Asia-Pacific, Governance & International Law, Middle East & Iran, North America, Security & Defence, Space & Conquest, Technology & Cyber

    Space is no longer the sanctuary of international cooperation. It has become a battlefield. Two projects, two visions, and one shared observation: the rules of the game have yet to be written. On one side, Jilin-1. China’s Earth observation constellation now has 152 satellites in orbit, out of 162 launched. Ninety percent of them offer…

  • AI: The Model War Has Been Declared

    AI: The Model War Has Been Declared

    22/07/2026
    Asia-Pacific, Decrypts, Economy & Sanctions, Governance & International Law, North America, Technology & Cyber

    On 17 July 2026, Moonshot AI launched Kimi K3. A model with 2.8 trillion parameters. For the first time, a Chinese artificial intelligence surpassed American models on the benchmarks. Its score of 1,679 points on the Frontend Code Arena relegated Anthropic Fable 5 to 1,631 points and OpenAI GPT-5.6 Sol to 1,579 points. The same…

  • US Strategic Reserves: The Energy Tipping Point

    US Strategic Reserves: The Energy Tipping Point

    21/07/2026
    Africa, Decrypts, Economy & Sanctions, Energy & Raw Materials, Middle East & Iran, Oceans & Sea Lanes, Security & Defence

    On 20 July 2026, the United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 311.4 million barrels. This is the lowest level since March 1983. Forty-three years ago, Ronald Reagan was president, and the Cold War was in full swing. Today, it is the war against Iran that is emptying the tanks. Since February 2026, Washington has…

  • Iran: Ground War on the Table

    Iran: Ground War on the Table

    21/07/2026
    Decrypts, Economy & Sanctions, Governance & International Law, Middle East & Iran, North America, Oceans & Sea Lanes, Security & Defence

    The signals are piling up. For several days, Donald Trump’s statements, American troop movements and Iranian preparations have been outlining a prospect no one wanted to contemplate: a ground war in Iran. More than 50,000 American soldiers are already deployed in the Middle East and placed on high alert, according to CENTCOM. Additional F-16s and…

  • France 2027: The Narrow Margins of the Next President

    France 2027: The Narrow Margins of the Next President

    21/07/2026
    Economy & Sanctions, Europe & NATO, Governance & International Law, Projections

    The French presidential election of April 2027 is approaching. The candidates are not yet officially declared, but names are already circulating. Jordan Bardella, ÉdouarThe French presidential election of April 2027 is approaching. The candidates are not yet officially declared, but names are already circulating. Jordan Bardella, Édouard Philippe, Xavier Bertrand, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann. The…

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